Why Past Performance of a Conventional (60-40) Portfolio Is NOT Indicative of Future Performance: Part 2

As discussed in Part 1 of “Why Past Performance of a Conventional (60-40) Portfolio Is NOT Indicative of Future Performance”, the results of a conventional 60-40 portfolio over the last 30 years aren’t likely to repeat in the near future. Going forward, if the P/E ratio reverts to its long-term average of 16.4, corporate profits grow at their historical average of +4.70%, and dividends increase at the same rate as corporate profits (and the dividend payout ratio increases to its long-term average), stocks will appreciate at just 7.05% per year over the next decade. Here’s the arithmetic. Future returns from…

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