As discussed in Part 1 of “Why Past Performance of a Conventional (60-40) Portfolio Is NOT Indicative of Future Performance”, the results of a conventional 60-40 portfolio over the last 30 years aren’t likely to repeat in the near future. Going forward, if the P/E ratio reverts to its long-term average of 16.4, corporate profits grow at their historical average of +4.70%, and dividends increase at the same rate as corporate profits (and the dividend payout ratio increases to its long-term average), stocks will appreciate at just 7.05% per year over the next decade. Here’s the arithmetic. Future returns from…...

For the past 31 years , a conventionally-diversified portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has provided investors with satisfying returns of +10.80% annually. This was the result of both stocks and bonds advancing strongly throughout that period. Better yet, stocks and bonds complimented each other nicely. When stocks returned +19.35% annually from the market low in 1982 to its peak in August 2000, bonds lagged somewhat (although still returning a substantial +10.34% annually). But in the period from the 2000 market peak to the 2009 market low, while stocks declined a sharp -43.51%, bonds balanced that with a…...

The March 28, 2013, USDA Prospective Plantings report will have a major impact on agricultural markets, providing the first survey-based indication of the expected plantings for the 2013 season. In anticipation of this report, please join us as experts from CME Group and Thomson Reuters discuss acreage expectations and the current market outlook.  When: Wednesday, March 27 2:30 p.m. CT Where: CME Group Auditorium 20 South Wacker Drive Chicago, IL 60604  -or- Attend it online! Webinar topics will include: Lanworth outlook on US 2013/2014 corn and soybean acreage 2012/2013 South American review International trade overview: exports, stocks, and demand 2013…...

Whether you possess a wealth of knowledge in search engine optimization (SEO) or you’ve just heard about it in passing, you probably know the phrase “link building” and how crucial it is to your website’s success. If you don’t know about link building don’t sweat it, you’re in the right place. In general terms, search engine optimization (SEO) is the process of increasing your website’s visibility in a search engine’s (such as Google) un-paid (“organic”) search results.  Search engines such as Google have algorithms that are applied to websites in order to rank them.  The higher your page rank, the…...

ICE Futures U.S. announced that it will launch a new cash-settled currency futures contract based on the Indian rupee/U.S. dollar exchange rate on Tuesday, January 22. The ICE rupee contract will be the first futures contract on the Indian currency offered by a U.S. exchange. It offers market participants the ease of doing business in a regulated futures environment for execution and clearing, alongside ICE’s suite of more than 60 currency contracts, which includes the U.S. Dollar Index. The listing of the Indian rupee contract recognizes the increasing importance and integration of India into the world economy and responds to…...

NFA Bylaw 1101 prohibits an NFA Member from carrying an account, accepting an order or handling a transaction in commodity futures contracts for or on behalf of any non-Member of NFA that is required to be registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an FCM, IB, CPO, CTA or LTM. Bylaw 1101 by its terms imposes strict liability on any Member conducting customer business with a non-Member that is required to be registered. Effective October 11, 2012, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) afforded certain IBs temporary registration no-action relief. Specifically, the CFTC’s Division of Swap Dealer and…...

Information Request Questionnaire Your Name & NFA # John Alan Vassallo 221551 How long have you personally been in the futures industry? 25 years Your 3-sentence Bio: Began working on the NYMEX floor in 1989; moved back to my home town, Dallas, TX, in 1990 to found my IB, Coquest which focuses on energy trading/hedging and managed futures. We now include an OTC brokerage company and a portion of Mega Capital, an IIB focused on managed futures. Your Disciplinary History, if any: None. Professional associations or Industry activities: I have served on the NFA Board for 10 years; NFA arbitrator;…...

Since the failures of MF Global and PFG, CME Group has worked closely with futures industry leaders to restore customer confidence and strengthen the protection of customer segregated funds. Together, CME Group, the NFA and the CFTC worked together to institute, in order to deter the misuse of customer funds, including: Daily segregation reporting by all FCMs. Bi-monthly reporting on investment of segregated funds. Increased surprise reviews of customer segregated funds. Ability to electronically confirm firms’ customer seg balances. New rules providing direct, online access to firm bank accounts for confirmations. CEO/CFO accountability for disbursements of more than 25 percent…...

Yesterday CME Group announced that it completed its acquisition of the Kansas City Board of Trade. Below is a message on this from CME Group’s Tim Andriesen that went to CME Group customers and we wanted to pass this along to our industry association contacts who may have an interest. To Our Valued Customers: A few weeks ago we told you about CME Group’s plans to acquire the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). We are pleased to announce that the acquisition has been completed, and we will be able to offer you greater capital efficiencies, new trading opportunities and…...

Dear Members – As 2012 draws to an end, most of us are still looking for answers to the confusing, disappointing, dangerous and just plain weird events of the past year.  Regulatory, legal and accounting issues which directly affect our businesses will all undergo significant changes in 2013 – some as a direct result of the MF Global and PFGBest failures. This issue of the NIBA newsletter includes information that we hope will help you prepare for a better year ahead.  In addition to the articles, NIBA is happy to announce a co-sponsored event in southern California with the CME…...