Portfolio managers were waiting on a signal from the Fed, and they received it from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, says Jack Bouroudjian. Powell suggested that “concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.”  Would a rate cut start an easing cycle, or is an insurance cut coming? Jack examines the landscape and gives us two trends to watch.   The post Market Update: Powell Gives A Signal appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Powell Gives A Signal

Regardless of the chosen trading strategy or even the instruments traded; results generally cycle from feast to famine. A friend of mine, Linda Raschke, once said: “The minute you think you have found the key to trading, I promise you the markets will change the lock.” The roller coaster ride that comes with any given futures or options trading strategy is not unlike how the markets themselves behave. If you need a reminder, check out a monthly crude oil chart spanning the previous two decades. The price of West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil has seen the $20s and…

At its high, bitcoin had rallied close to 280 percent in the first six months of 2019 with much of that move occurring in June alone.  If this move had occurred in a vacuum it would certainly be significant. However, when we add in some other interesting macro movements and events it begins to unlock the mystery of what bitcoin is and what it could eventually be. Easy Money Cycle Both gold and bitcoin were hovering near cycle lows in December of 2018 when the first hint was given that the Fed’s hiking cycle was near completion and a different…

Jack Bouroudjian discusses interest rates, earnings and confidence — the three pillars of market fundamentals — ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week. He also covers why this time of year is critical for market participants. The post Market Update: The Three Pillars of Markets appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: The Three Pillars of Markets

Gold prices have been on a wild ride. Between 2000 and 2011, they rose from $280 to around $1,900 per ounce before falling back to $1,050 in 2015. Currently, they are trading close to $1,300 an ounce. Gold has made similar-sized moves when priced in the Chinese renminbi (CNH). From a CNH perspective, prices rose from 2,000 to 12,000 between 2001 and 2011 before falling back to 7,000 in 2015. Currently, it’s trading near 9,000 CNH (Figure 1). The similarity in performance reflects the stability of CNH versus the U.S. dollar, staying within about a 25 percent range during the…

The U.S. dollar is the most important currency in the world and when it falls, everyone feels the ripples. Over 80 percent of all currency transactions involve the greenback and investors of all asset classes have learned that its ups and downs can have significant ramifications for their investments. But the dollar’s influence is even more far reaching than that – any businesses with customers outside of their own borders need to be mindful of its swings because the moves in the greenback can have a big impact on earnings and equity valuations. Dollar Connection to Gold and Oil In…

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool expects a rate cut soon. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets on July 30-31 to decide whether to cut rates and if so, by how much. While some more vocal members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are ready to accommodate the White House and/or the bond market by cutting rates, others may be more data-dependent, meaning they want to assess and analyze the latest data to see if there are any signs of economic weakness.  Here is our take on what the data releases in July 2019 might bring. July 5: Jobs Report: Data from the…

After the record-setting first half of the year, the second half started with a surge for equity indexes. Jack Bouroudjian breaks down why we should watch fund flows and why the traditionally slow summer months could be more active this year. The post Market Update: Summertime Surge appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Summertime Surge

Jack Bouroudjian explains how the first half of the year was record-breaking in equity markets. He then examines how major news stories like trade may influence the appetite for risk as we enter the second half of the year. The post Market Update: Looking Ahead to The Second Half appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Looking Ahead to The Second Half

In almost every industry today, effective decision-making depends on having the right data. You can see the evidence in the race to disseminate business analytics. Google, Salesforce and other major firms are investing heavily in getting customers new, reliable data faster and more efficiently. The needs are especially present in financial services. Investors, researchers and risk managers are looking for market data delivered as quickly as possible – everything from futures prices to satellite images of Midwestern crops. As technology rapidly evolves, the way exchanges deliver data to clients has evolved as well. Snail Mail to Click-Through Data In just…